The NOAA predicts that “conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean favor a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this season”. The NOAA announced on May 24, 2012 their 2012 Hurricane outlook.
The six month hurricane season officially begins on June 1. The NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center estimates a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2012:
- 9 – 15 Named storms
- 4 – 8 Hurricanes
- 1 – 3 Major Hurricanes
This outlook reflects the possibility of “competing climate factors”, in combination with several circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) features. This would suggest a less active season compared to those in recent years.
The seasonal outlook stops short of predicting the number of storms that will strike land.
Visit http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2012/May/hurricane.shtml for the complete press release from the NOAA. NOAA will prepare a mid-hurricane season assessment in August of this year.
Be reminded that this is the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew that devastated Miami and the southern tip of Florida on August 24, 1992. Hurricane Andrew was a category 5 storm that caused an estimated $26.5 billion in damage to the area. Get prepared for hurricane threats by visiting www.ready.gov/hurricanes.
May 27 – June 2 is Hurricane Preparedness Week.